[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2694 (S32W10, Hsx/alpha) exhibited decay in its trailer spots, little change to its leader spot, and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance of C-class flares from 09-11 Jan due to the slight flare probability of Region 2694.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to moderate levels on 09 Jan and increase to moderate to high levels on 10-11 Jan due to effects associated with the enhanced solar wind field. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence from a positive polarity extension of the north polar coronal hole. Total field strength began the period near 21 nT before beginning an unsteady decline to end of period values near 4 nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to near -13 nT at the beginning of the period, but returned to end of period values near -1 nT. Solar wind speed reached speeds near 585 km/s midway through the period, but have remained steady near 535 km/s for the last half of the period. The phi angle was primarily positive, but did see several oscillations into a negative orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 09 Jan due to influences of the CH HSS. Solar wind speed is anticipated to decline on 10-11 Jan due to waning solar wind speed as the CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period, likely associated with the polar connected, positive polarity, CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled for the remainder of 09 Jan due to continuing CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 10-11 Jan as CH HSS influences wane.

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