[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2695 (S09W67, Bxo/beta) began to show signs of decay shortly after emerging. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (12-14 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels on days one and two (12-13 Jan). An increase to moderate to high levels is likely by day three (14 Jan) due to effects associated with a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Total field strength ranged between 2-4 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +3/-4 nT. Solar wind speed decreased steadily decreased from around 420 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 335 km/s. Solar wind density increased above 5 particles per cubic cm following a solar sector boundary crossing (negative to positive) at around 12/0830 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background levels on day one (12 Jan) through mid to late on day two (13 Jan) under an ambient solar wind regime. Mid to late on 13 Jan, an enhancement in wind parameters is anticipated due to the arrival of a weak CIR in advance of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet on day one (12 Jan) through mid to late on day two (13 Jan). By mid to late on 13 Jan, activity levels are expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions in response to CIR/CH HSS influence. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist through day three (14 Jan) under continued CH HSS influence.

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