[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 13 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (13-15 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels on day one (13 Jan). An increase to moderate to high levels is likely by days two and three (14-15 Jan) due to effects associated with a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds varied between 315-345 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength (Bt) values ranged between 2-6 nT and Bz was sustained southward at around -4 nT late in the period. Solar wind density increased above 10 particles per cubic cm following a solar sector boundary crossing (positive to negative) after 13/0645 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background levels through mid to late on day one (13 Jan) under an ambient solar wind regime. Mid to late on 13 Jan, an enhancement in wind parameters is anticipated due to the arrival of a weak CIR in advance of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through days two and three (14-15 Jan) under continued CH HSS influence. Based on STEREO data, wind speeds are anticipated to peak at about 600 km/s late on 14 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet through the first half of day one (13 Jan). By mid to late on 13 Jan, activity levels are expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions in response to CIR/CH HSS influence. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist through day two (14 Jan). By day three (15 Jan), a decrease in activity levels to quiet to unsettled is anticipated as CH HSS effects slowly wane.

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