[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels this period. New Region 2696 (S11E32, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jan) following a period of enhanced solar wind. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 600 km/s to end-of-period values around 500 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 1-6 nT while the Bz component briefly reached -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day one (15 Jan) under continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. A gradual return to near-background solar wind conditions is expected to begin by day two (16 Jan), and continue through day three (17 Jan), with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period with an isolated active period observed between 15/0000-0300 UTC due to continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the remainder of day one (15 Jan) under continued CH HSS influence. Generally quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (16-17 Jan) as CH HSS effects wane and subside.

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