[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 20 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2696 (S12W42) produced a B1 flare but decayed to plage during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (20-22 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on day one (20 Jan) with an increase to moderate levels on days two and three (21-22 Jan) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slightly disturbed solar wind environment. Wind speed began the period near 325 km/s and ended at approximately 400 km/s. Total field peaked at 10 nT while Bz decreased to -8 nT. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become more enhanced during the remainder of day one (20 Jan) as influence from a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Winds are expected to slowly decline over days two and three (21-22 Jan) as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field will likely reach active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, during the onset of an anticipated, positive polarity CH HSS on day one (20 Jan). Active conditions are expected on day two (21 Jan) and unsettled conditions are likely on day three (22 Jan) as influence from the CH HSS weakens.

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