[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (21-23 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on day one (21 Jan) with an increase to moderate levels on days two and three (22-23 Jan) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was slightly disturbed. Solar wind speed ranged between 400-460 km/s. Total field peaked at 12 nT. Bz briefly dropped to -7 nT late in the period. Phi angle was variable but predominantly in a negative (towards) orientation.

Forecast: Additional solar wind enhancements are expected on day one (21 Jan) due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are likely to slowly wane over days two and three (22-23 Jan) as CH HSS influence weakens.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field will likely reach isolated periods of active conditions on day one (21 Jan) due to anticipated CH HSS effects. Unsettled conditions are likely on days two and three (22-23 Jan) as influence from the CH HSS persists.

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