[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 22 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest event of the period was a B9/Sf at 22/0257 UTC from plage Region 2696 (S12W62). An associated CME, on the southwest limb, was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 22/0324 UTC. Due to the source location and trajectory it is unlikely to be geoeffective, however, analysis is ongoing to determine if there is an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on day one (22 Jan) with an increase to moderate levels on days two and three (23-24 Jan) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment indicated persistent negative polarity CH HSS influence. Wind speed began the period near 485 km/s and rose to 530 km/s to end the period. Total field peaked early in the period at 10 nT and decreased to approximately 4 nT by periods end. Bz dropped to a low of -7 nT. Phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced but in gradual decline over the next three days (22-24 Jan) as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field will likely continue at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Jan) due to gradually waning influence of the CH HSS.

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