[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2699 (S06E70, Cso/beta) gained a more complex classification as it continue to rotate into view. The strongest flare it produced was a C1/Sf flare at 04/2024 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (05-07 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (05-07 Feb) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased from 6 nT to a peak of 9 nT at 04/1900 UTC before trending back towards 5 nT by the end of the period. Bz was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT at 05/0023 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from around 350 km/s to a peak of 455 km/s at 05/0755 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a waning influence of a mild CH HSS over 05 Feb. Waning effects are expected over 06 Feb and nominal levels are expected by 07 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 Feb and into 06 Feb due to continued CH HSS effects. Generally quiet conditions are expected 07 Feb as CH HSS influence trends towards a nominal solar wind regime.

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