[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2699 (S06E58, Cso/beta) produced several B-class flares, the largest being a B8 flare at 05/1824 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance of C-class flares all three days (06-08 Feb) due primarily to Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days (06-08 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 4 to 7 nT and the Bz component underwent predominantly weak deviations. Solar wind speed was variable between 400-450 km/s and the phi angle was mostly positive (away from Sun).

Forecast: A general trend towards ambient-background like conditions is expected the next three days (06-08 Feb) as the influence of the positive extension of the north polar CH HSS continues to stream primarily north of Earth. Occasional enhancements in solar wind speed are possible due to the proximity of the CH HSS all three days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (06 Feb) due to weak influences of the CH HSS. Days two and three (07-08 Feb) are expected to be primarily quiet as minor CH HSS influences persist, but diminish further.

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