[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 08 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to C8/Sf flare from Region 2699 (S08E33, Dso/beta-gamma) at 07/1347 UTC. The region remained stable in growth and magnetic complexity during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (08-10 Feb) and slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on days one and two due to the flare potential from Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels on days one and two (08-09 Feb) and increase to normal to moderate levels on day three (10 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT and the Bz component was at benign values. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from near 425 km/s to around 375 km/s. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal on day one (08 Feb). Days two and three (09-10 Feb) are expected to see an enhancement in the solar wind from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (08 Feb). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10 Feb) due to the influences of a CH HSS.

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