[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2699 (S07E20, Dai/beta) continued to produce several B-class enhancements. The region exhibited some consolidation in the trailer spot and slight dissipation among the intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares over 09-11 Feb, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare on 9-10 Feb, due to activity associated with Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 09-11 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were mostly nominal. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward value of -4 nT. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease from 400 km/s at the start of the period to near 325 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle transitioned from the negative sector the the positive sector after 09/0410 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters may exhibit slight enhancement on 09 Feb from weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Nominal conditions are expected over 10-11 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled in response to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet late on 09 Feb. Quiet conditions are expected to continue through 10-11 Feb under a nominal solar wind regime.

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