[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Feb 12 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Feb 12 0146 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 February 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels on 05, 08-09 and 11 Feb while low levels were observed on 06-07 and 10 Feb. All of the period's activity originated from Region 2699 (S07, L=165, class/area Dai/240 on 10 Feb). The largest observed event was a C8 flare observed at 07/1347 UTC. No Earth-directed CME activity was detected during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels the entire period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Isolated unsettled intervals were observed on 05, 09 and 10 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 February - 10 March 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a chance for M-class activity, through 16 Feb due to the flare potential of Region 2699. Very low levels are expected from 17-28 Feb. A return to very low to low levels, with a chance for M-class activity, is possible from 01-10 Mar after the return of old Region 2699.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-25 Feb, with a chance for high levels on 19 Feb, due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly normal levels are anticipated on 26 Feb - 10 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15-18 Feb, 20-22 Feb and 04 Mar, with isolated active periods likely on 16 Feb. This activity is due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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