[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2699 (S07E22, Dai/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a long-duration C1 flare at 12/0135 UTC. The region exhibited some dissipation and consolidation among its intermediate spots.

Associated with the C1 flare was a partial-halo CME signature which first appeared in currently available coronagraph imagery (LASCO C3) at 12/0306 UTC. Estimated arrival time will be determined as more coronagraph imagery becomes available. Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare, over 12-14 Feb due to the flare potential of Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 12-14 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a nominal environment. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was variable with no significant southward periods observed. Solar wind speeds remained low, ranging from 300-325 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive with brief rotations in to the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels throughout the forecast period (12-14 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet over the next three days (12-14 Feb).

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