[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 16 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2699 (S08W74, Axx/alpha) continued to decay and managed only B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (16-18 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on days one and two (16-17 Feb) and moderate to high levels on day three (18 Feb) due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 5 to 15 nT while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 340 to 420 km/s. The phi angle fluctuated between sectors but was mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced all three days due to influences from the CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to a period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of G1-Minor storming likely on day one (16 Feb), due to influences from a CIR. Days two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active levels possible, due to CH HSS effects.

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