[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 17 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2699 (S08, L=169) decayed to plage as it approached the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (17-19 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (17 Feb) and moderate to high levels on days two and three (18-19 Feb) due to CH HSS influence.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed steadily increased from near 350 km/s to end-the-period at about 500 km/s. Total field ranged between 5 and 12 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-7 nT. The Phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (17-19 Feb) due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals on days one and two (17-18 Feb) due to CH HSS influence. Day three (19 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to weakening CH HSS effects.

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