[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low during the forecast period (18-20 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels due to influence from CH HSS effects. A peak flux of 116 pfu was observed at 17/2145 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the forecast period (18-20 Feb) due to elevated wind speeds associated with the recent CH HSS feature. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated persistent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began near 460 km/s and ended the period at approximately 605 km/s. Total field achieved a maximum value of 9 nT while the Bz component dropped as low as -5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (18-20 Feb) due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Feb) due to persistent CH HSS influence.

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