[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (21-23 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on day one (21 Feb) and decrease to moderate to high levels on day two (22 Feb) in response to effects from a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. A return to high levels is expected on day three (23 Feb) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal until near 21/0600 UTC, when a possible CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS occurred. Total field reached 9 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 350 to 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through day two (22 Feb) due CIR influences ahead of the negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated solar wind speed is anticipated to continue into day three (23 Feb) as CH HSS influences continue, but begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Day one (21 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Day two (22 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period likely due to CH HSS influences. Day three (23 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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