[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 25 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 2,614 pfu observed at 24/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds declined from near 480 km/s to period ending values approaching 400 km/s. Total field reached a maximum value of 7 nT while the Bz component dropped to a period low of -1 nT. Phi angle remained in a steady negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to remain enhanced over the next three days (25-27 Feb) due to influence from multiple negative polarity CH HSSs in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. An additional enhancement is expected late on day one (25 Feb) as a polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from a negative polarity CH HSS waned.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels by the later half of day one (25 Feb), unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Feb) due to influence from a polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS.

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