[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Feb 26 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Feb 26 0308 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 February 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period. No active regions were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 19-26 Feb. A peak flux of 13,500 pfu was observed on 19/2030 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to multiple negative coronal hole onsets. Quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 19 Feb were associated with peak wind speeds of just about 550 km/s from a negative polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic response declined along with solar wind speeds with quiet to unsettled conditions observed on 20 Feb and quiet levels on 21 Feb . A subsequent enhancement in solar wind speeds from another negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic field activity to quiet to active levels on 22 Feb, and further to quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels on 23 Feb, which were also associated with peak wind speeds around 550 km/s. Activity dropped to quiet to unsettled on 24 Feb and completely quiet by 25 Feb as effects from the CH HSS waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 24 March 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 26-28 Feb and 18-24 Mar due to elevated wind speeds from multiple coronal holes. Moderate levels are anticipated on 15 Mar and the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 26 Feb and 18 Mar. Active levels are expected on 14 Mar, 16-17 Mar, 21 Mar and 22 Mar. Unsettled levels are expected on 27 Feb, 15 Mar, and 23-24 Mar. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

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