[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (13-15 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels on days one and two (13-14 Mar) and increase to normal to moderate levels on day three (15 Mar) due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength ranged from 2 to 5 nT, while Bz varied slightly between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed was primarily between 340-400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive sector, with isolated oscillations into a negative orientation near the end of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on day one (13 Mar) due to an anticipated SSBC and early effects from an approaching CIR. Day two (14 Mar) is expected to see further enhancements due to CIR arrival and the onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated into day three (15 Mar) as CH HSS influences continue.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (13 Mar) in response to a SSBC from a positive to a negative sector. Days two and three (14-15 Mar) are expected to see an enhancement in solar wind speed and IMF due to CIR effects, followed by connection with the CH HSS. This increase in activity is expected to lead to quiet to active levels, with likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming each day.

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