[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 14 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. No sunspots were present on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (14-16 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels for the remainder of day one (14 Mar). An increase to normal to moderate levels on day two (15 Mar) and a further increase to moderate to high levels on day three (16 Mar) is anticipated due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a nominal solar wind regime. Total field strength ranged from 1 to 5 nT, the Bz component remained near +/-3 nT, and solar wind speed was primarily between 310-380 km/s. The phi angle remained in the negative sector for the majority of the period, aside from some variability in sector orientation after 13/2230 UTC. NOTE: DSCOVR solar wind data was suspect from 14/0550-0750 UTC, due to ground station tracking issues.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to see an enhancement on day one (14 Mar) due to CIR arrival and subsequent connection with a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to persist, but weaken, into day two (15 Mar) as CIR influences diminish. However, elevated solar wind parameters are likely to continue as Earth remains under the influence of the CH HSS into day three (16 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely late on day one and into day two (14-15 Mar) due to CIR and CH HSS effects. Day three (16 Mar) is expected to see quiet to active conditions as CH HSS effects continue but weaken.

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