[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (15-17 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels for the remainder of day one (15 Mar). An increase to moderate levels is likely on day two and three (16-17 Mar) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhancements associated with negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength averaged near 9 nT, and peaked near 13 nT at 14/2204 UTC. Bz was variable throughout the period, with a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at 14/1425 UTC. Solar wind speeds began the period near 340 km/s before seeing an unsteady and gradual increase to end of period speeds near 470 km/s. Phi angle displayed a tendency towards the negative sector but exhibited periodic oscillations into the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels all three days (15-17 Mar) of the forecast period, due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected remain at unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on day one due to CIR and CH HSS effects. Days two and three (16-17 Mar) are expected to see quiet to active conditions as CH HSS effects persist.

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