[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2701 (S12W15) decayed into an area of enhanced plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (16-18 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at mostly normal to moderate levels, but did briefly reach high levels at 16/0150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels on day one (16 Mar). An increase to moderate to high levels is likely on days two and three (17-18 Mar) due to continuing CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength remained steady between 5 to 8 nT, while Bz was variable between +/- 7 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds generally averaged around 500 km/s, but did reach a peak of 555 km/s at 0744 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative sector with a few brief rotations into the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels all three days (16-18 Mar) of the forecast period as influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (minor) storming, over the next three days (16-18 Mar) under persistent influence of a CH HSS.

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