[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (18-20 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next two days (18-19 Apr). A return to moderate to high levels is expected on day three (20 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds averaged near 300 km/s, total field strength averaged around 3-4 nT, and the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative sector, with isolated oscillations into the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels through most of day one of the forecast period (18 Apr). Late on day one, conditions are expected to increase slightly as effects from the anticipated CIR begin. By day two (19 Apr), a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position, further increasing solar wind parameters, with effects persisting into day three (20 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of day one (18 Apr) under a nominal solar wind regime. Late on day one, an increase to quiet to unsettled conditions is likely due to the influence from an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (19 Apr) should see unsettled to active conditions with the onset of the CH HSS. By day three (20 Apr), conditions should be at mostly unsettled levels, with an isolated active period possible, as weak CH HSS persist but continue to wane.

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