[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 19 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Isolated B-class flares were observed originating from a new region near N04E82. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (19-21 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (19 Apr). A return to moderate levels is expected on days two and three (20-21 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to indicate a background solar wind regime. Solar wind held steady at sub 300 km/s speeds, total field strength was between 1-3 nT, and the Bz component remained mostly southward, averaging around -2 nT throughout the period. Phi angle was primarily in a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to begin the period (19 Apr) at or near background levels, before beginning to show gradual enhancements with the arrival of the anticipated CIR. Late on day one and into day two (20 Apr), conditions are expected to show further enhancements with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS as it moves into a geoeffective position. Towards the end of day three (21 Apr), conditions should begin to relax as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the start of day one (19 Apr) under a nominal solar wind regime. By midday, an increase to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected, with isolated active conditions likely, due to the influence from an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (20 Apr) should see mostly unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects persist. By day three (21 Apr), conditions should be at mostly quiet levels, as weak CH HSS influence continue to wane.

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