[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2708 (S09E45, Cro/beta) was stable and absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days (05-07 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 644 pfu observed at 04/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions through about 05/0930 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged between 315-355 km/s. Total field (Bt) was below 5 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed.

After 05/0930 UTC, wind speed increased to about 385km/s, Bt increased to 12 nT while the Bz component reached periods of -7 nT. This increase could be related to the upcoming co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of an anticipated recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Phi remained in a positive orientation throughout the period. Forecast: For the remainder of day one (05 May), solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced under CIR influence. Beginning early on day two (06 May), a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) from a positive to a negative orientation is anticipated. This, coupled with CIR effects in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, is expected to further enhance solar wind parameters. Day three (07 May) should see persistent CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels under a mostly slow solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (05 May). On day two (06 May), geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely, in response to the aforementioned CIR/CH HSS onset. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on day three (07 May) due to continued CH HSS influence.

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