[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2708 (S10E31, Bxo/beta) was stable and absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days (06-08 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the forecast period (06-08 May) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were representative of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. The period began with solar wind speeds at about 360 km/s but gradually increased to an average of near 680 km/s through the period. A peak speed of 725 km/s was observed at 06/0521 UTC. Total field (Bt) reached at peak of 17 nT at about 05/1330 UTC and remained elevated at near 10 nT through 06/0130 UTC. After 06/0130 UTC, Bt decreased to a steady 5 nT.

The Bz component varied between +12 nT to -14 nT through 06/0130 UTC, but did not fall below -5 nT thereafter. Phi angle began the period in a positive orientation, but rapidly shifted to a negative orientation after about 05/1315 UTC, and remained so through periods end.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected throughout the forecast period (06-08 May) due to persistent CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on days one and two (06-07 May) in response to the aforementioned CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (08 May) due to continued CH HSS influence.

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