[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 May 07 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 May 07 0147 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April - 06 May 2018

Solar activity was very quiet throughout the reporting period. Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area Dao/130 on 22 Apr) produced the strongest event of the past week, a B1 flare on 01/2115 UTC. Activity on the farside of the Sun produced a halo CME signature first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1712 UTC; however, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to moderate levels from 30 Apr to 05 May. Influence from a negative polarity CH HSS caused an increase to high levels on 06 May with a peak flux of 11,500 pfu observed at 06/2305 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet until 05 May, when enhancements in the solar wind from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic activity to G1 (Minor) storm levels. A further increase to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed early on 06 May. Solar wind speeds peaked at just over 700 km/s and persisted just below 700 km/s through the end of the reporting period. Total field peaked during the CIR, with a maximum of 17 nT observed at 05/1340 UTC. The maximum southward value of Bz was -14 nT which was observed 05/1327 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 May - 02 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next 27 days.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels from 07-26 May and 02 Jun. Normal to moderate levels are expected over 27 May - 01 Jun. All enhancements in electron flux are attributed to the anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on 17 May; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 07 May and 02 Jun; active conditions are likely on 08-09 May, 18 May and 01 Jun; unsettled levels are likely on 10 May and 19 May. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet. All enhancements to geomagnetic activity are due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

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