[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2708 (S11E18, Bxo/beta) was stable and absent of significant flare activity. A 10 degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near N17E74, first observed in GONG imagery at 06/2114 UTC. It appeared a majority of the material was reabsorbed with no associated CME visible in coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days (07-09 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels due to CH HSS influence. A peak flux of 11,529 pfu observed at 06/2305 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels throughout the forecast period (07-09 May) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged near 650 k/s throughout the period with a peak speed of 717 km/s observed at 06/1219 UTC. Total field ranged between 1-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 nT to -6 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation with some variability to a positive sector from 07/0645-0945 UTC. Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected throughout the forecast period (07-09 May) due to persistent CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (07 May) in response to the aforementioned CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 May) due to continued CH HSS influence.

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