[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2708 (S09E04, Bxo/beta) underwent slow decay and remained inactive. New Region 2709 (N06E71, Hax/alpha) quietly rotated onto the NE limb. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (08-10 May) due primarily to the slight flare potential of Region 2708.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a maximum flux of 26,784 pfu observed at 07/2140 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels all three days (08-10 May), with a chance for very high levels by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Solar wind speed generally varied between 600-700 km/s before it slowly declined to range between 560-600 km/s toward the end of the period. Total IMF strength ranged between 2-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-7 nT. The phi angle began the period highly variable between sectors through about 07/1930 UTC when it settled into a mostly negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain under the influence of the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS all three days (08-10 May). The IMF is likely to undergo occasional disturbed periods; while solar wind speed is anticipated to begin a steady, slow decline over the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to the variable solar wind field of the CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals, on days one and two (08-09 May) as Earth remains well connected with the CH HSS. By day three (10 May), activity levels are expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled in response to weakening influences of the CH HSS as it rotates away from a more favorable geoeffective position.

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