[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Both Regions 2708 (S10W07, Axx/alpha) and 2709 (N05E57, Axx/alpha) were stable and inactive. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (09-11 May) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 22,852 pfu at 08/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels all three days (09-11 May), with a chance for very high levels by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained under a fast solar wind regime due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed was mostly steady between about 620-690 km/s. Total IMF strength ranged between 2-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 nT to -5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative solar sector orientation.

Forecast: The CH HSS regime is expected to continue all three days (09-11 May). Solar wind speed is anticipated to gradually decrease beginning later on day one (09 May) and continue to decline through days two and three (10-11 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day one (09 May) with a chance for isolated active periods late due to continued CH HSS influence. Weakening CH HSS influences are expected to result in quiet to unsettled conditions on day two (10 May). Day three (11 May) is expected to experience primarily quiet conditions due to waning CH HSS effects.

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