[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the sun remained spotless on the visible disk. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (15-17 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 16,700 pfu at 14/2145 UTC, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mainly high levels again on days one and two (15-16 May) and decrease to normal to high levels on day three (17 May) due to effects associated with CIR arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from near 400 km/s to around 350 km/s by periods end. Total field strength was at 4 to 5 nT, while the Bz component underwent weak deviations only. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue through day one and most of day two (15-16 May). During the later part of day two, an increase in total IMF may begin due to effects associate with an approaching CIR. The arrival of the CIR ahead of a recurrent, isolated, negative polarity CH HSS early on day three (17 May) is likely to result in an enhanced and disturbed IMF. CIR passage is expected to be followed by an increase in solar wind speed to around 500 km/s due to onset of the CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to dominate through day two (15-16 May) due to the slow, ambient solar wind environment. CIR arrival and CH HSS onset on day three (17 May) are expected to result in mainly unsettled to active conditions, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely. The overall planetary geomagnetic response is not anticipated to be as strong as recurrence suggests from previous Carrington Rotation (CR) 2203 due the CH being much smaller and more tenuous in SDO AIA 193 imagery while at center disk this rotation.

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