[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (16-18 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a maximum flux of 21,333 pfu at 15/1845 UTC, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels again on day one (16 May), before declining to normal to high levels on day two (17 May) due to CIR effects. An increase to moderate to high levels is expected due to CH HSS influence on day three (18 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased from 350 to 300 km/s. Total field strength varied from 2 to 5 nT with weak deviations observed in the Bz component. The phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: The current slow solar wind regime is expected to last into day one (16 May). By the early hours of day two (17 May), a CIR is expected to become geoeffective, bringing enhanced conditions. The subsequent CH HSS is expected to bring solar wind speeds up to near 500 km/s and persist through day three (18 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to continue until late on day one (16 May). Unsettled conditions are expected to follow with CIR arrival and CH HSS onset. Unsettled to active levels, with a likely period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, are expected on day two (17 May). Unsettled conditions, with an isolated active period likely, are expected to linger into day three (18 May) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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