[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the Sun remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (17-19 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a maximum flux of 15,763 pfu observed at 16/1930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels on day one (17 May). Moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (18-19 May) due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters underwent an enhancement in the latter half of the period due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 325 to 450 km/s by periods end. Total field increased from background levels to a peak of 10 nT, while the Bz component underwent minor deviations. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced all three days (17-19 May) due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at primarily unsettled to active levels, with a likely period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day one (17 May) due to effects associated with CIR arrival and CH HSS onset. Day two (18 May) is expected to experience mainly unsettled conditions, with a likely period of active levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (19 May) as the CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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