[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (18-20 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 5,640 pfu observed at 17/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (18-20 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a weak negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed generally ranged from 390-460 km/s with a peak speed of 478 km/s observed at 18/0126 UTC. Total field ranged from 1-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +2 nT to -7 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a steady negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on days one and two (18-19 May) under weak CH HSS influence. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on day three (20 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May) due to persistent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (19 May) as CH HSS effects diminish. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on day three (20 May).

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