[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Jun 18 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jun 18 0349 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 June 2018

Solar activity was very low with only low level B-class flare activity observed from Region 2713 (N06, L=285, class/area Bxo/060 on 13 Jun). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in satellite imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11-13 Jun and decreased to moderate levels on 14-17 Jun. The largest flux of the period was 1,840 pfu observed at 11/1945 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 280 km/s to 340 km/s through the majority of the period with total field at or below 6 nT. At approximately 17/1250 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed from a negative to a positive orientation. A corresponding increase in total field to around 14 nT was observed at 17/2355 UTC along with an increase in solar wind speed to near 415 km/s. This indicated the arrival of a CIR preceding a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 June - 14 July 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares from 18 Jun-01 Jul with the return of old Region 2712 (N15, L=176). Very low levels are expected for the rest of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 28 Jun-10 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 18-19, 24-25, and 27-30 Jun with G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 18 Jun and 28-29 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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