[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity. Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2713 (N05W08, Bxo/beta) produced a few weak B-class flares during the period. Slight growth was noted in the region. New Region 2714 (N07W35, Bxo/Beta) developed early in the period, but exhibited no activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Energetic Particles. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 815 pfu observed at 17/1910 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Geospace/Solar Wind. Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at near-background levels until just after 17/2100 UTC when total field became slightly enhanced with the likely arrival of a CIR preceding a weak positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased from 2-15 nT and the Bz component rotated southward to a maximum of -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 295-415 km/s. Phi angle trends suggested the passage of a SSBC with a transition from the negative sector to the positive sector after 17/1250 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels despite the slight increase in solar wind parameters.

After 18/0000 UTC, total field increased to 20 nT while the Bz component varied sharply between +18 nT to -13 nT. Wind speeds increased further to a maximum of near 510 km/s. Geomagnetic field conditions responded with active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions.

: 3-DAY FORECAST: [18 Jun-20 Jun]

.Solar Activity. Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the forecast period.

.Energetic Particle. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 18 Jun increasing to normal to high levels due to an enhanced solar wind environment. Background levels are expected for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux through the forecast period.

.Geospace/Solar Wind. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely, for the remainder of 18 Jun and through 19 Jun due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with a positive polarity CH HSS. By 20 Jun, quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects slowly wane.

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