[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2713 (N05W19, Bxo/beta) was stable in growth and mostly inactive. Region 2714 (N08W47, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight growth in areal spot coverage and managed a few B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (19-21 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained a background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (19-21 Jun) and background levels are expected for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were consistent with waning CH HSS influences. Total field gradually decreased from 10 to 3 nT. The Bz component was variable and at nominal values. Solar wind speeds were between 475 and 520 km/s. Phi was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to trend toward background values over the next three days (19-21 Jun) as CH HSS influences continue to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet. Active levels were observed during the first synoptic period due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19-20 Jun) as CH HSS effects further diminish. Quiet levels are expected on day three (21 Jun), with a return to a nominal solar wind regime.

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