[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Jun 25 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jun 25 0343 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 June 2018

Solar activity was at predominately very low levels with an isolated C2/Sf flare observed at 21/0115 UTC from Region 2715 (N08, L=231, class/area Dac/120 on 23 Jun). This region, as well as Region 2713 (N05, L=289, class/area Dao/070 on 23 Jun), also produced numerous B-class flares during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 18 and 23 Jun and moderate levels on 19-22 Jun. High levels were reached on 24 Jun in response to an enhanced solar wind environment.

Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active levels with an isolated G1 (Minor) storm period observed early on 18 Jun. The period began under the influence of a waning, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked at 525-540 km/s early to midday on 18 Jun with the Bz component variable between +16 nT to -9 nT. On 18 Jun through midday on 19 Jun, field conditions ranged from quiet to isolated G1 geomagnetic storm conditions. From midday 19 Jun through early on 23 Jun, solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels with a quiet geomagnetic field.

Early on 23 Jun, solar wind parameters indicated a weak CIR signature in advance of another positve polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds gradually increased from about 325 km/s to a peak of near 515 km/s by the end of 23 Jun. Total field strength peaked at 15 nT midday on 23 Jun while the Bz component varied between +12 nT to -15 nT through midday on the 23rd before relaxing to a variable +/-9 nT through the summary end. Field conditions responded with quiet to active conditions on 23 Jun and quiet to isolated unsettled conditions on 24 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 June - 21 July 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity on 25-28 Jun until Region 2715 rotates off the visible disk. Very low levels are expected from 29 Jun - 10 Jul. With the return of old Region 2715 on 11 Jul, very low levels, with a chance for C-class flare activity, is expected through the remainder of the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be be at high levels on 25-26 Jun and 28 Jun - 10 Jul due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 25-30 Jun, 15 Jul and 20-21 Jul with G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 27-28 Jun, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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