[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Multiple B-class flares were observed from Regions 2713 (N08W42, Dso/beta) and 2715 (N05, L=289). The largest was a B3/Sf at 24/1752 UTC from Region 2715. Region 2715 continued to exhibit minor decay over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a decreasing chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (25-27 Jun) as Region 2715 continues to decay and Region 2713 rotates further around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,130 pfu observed at 24/2045 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (25-26 Jun) with a decrease to moderate levels likely on day three (27 Jun) in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 490 km/s to near 410 km/s under the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day two (26 Jun) through day three (27 Jun) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. STEREO-A solar wind data suggests wind speeds in excess of 700 km/s are likely during the passage of this feature.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the rest of day one (25 Jun) as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS subsides. The onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active conditions on day two (26 Jun) and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on day three (27 Jun).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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