[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S07E42, Cro/beta) remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels all three days (15-17 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until approximately 15/0700 UTC. Wind speed then increased from around 340 km/s to near 440 km/s, total field slowly increased from 4 nT to 10 nT, and the Bz component became variable, eventually seeing southward deviations to -9 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on 15 and 16 Aug, due to the continued effects from the CIR arrival and subsequent positive polarity CH HSS. CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane on 17 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet, with isolated unsettled levels at the end of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 15-16 Aug due to the effects of a CIR and subsequent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 Aug as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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