[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S07E30, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight decay in its trailer spots, but did manage to produce an A8 flare at 16/0918 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 16-17 Aug and increasing to moderate levels by 18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT, solar wind speeds peaked at 512 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum deflection of -9 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from the influence of the positive polarity CH HSS through 16 Aug. Enhancements are expected to wane on 17 Aug and return to nominal levels by 18 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 16 Aug and quiet to unsettled on 17 Aug as CH HSS effects persist. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18 Aug.

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