[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2718(S03E17, Hrx/beta) continued to exhibit decay and was inactive during the period. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 17-19 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued, but waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked near 9 nT early in the period, solar wind speeds reached just over 500 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels as CH HSS effects diminish on 17 Aug. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected over 18-19 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled for the remainder of 17 Aug as CH HSS effects diminish. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18-19 Aug.

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