[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S07E23, Bxo/beta) was the only spotted region on the visible disk and was inactive.

There was an eruptive prominence on the west limb with an associated CME observed in LASCO imagery, first visible at 20/2124Z. However, given the source location, the ejecta is not expected to have a geoeffective component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (21-23 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 4,150 pfu observed at 20/2320 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (21-23 Aug) due to enhanced solar wind conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 625 km/s for the period. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward, but did briefly deflect southward to around -5 nT a few times early in the period. The phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three days (21-23 Aug) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Mostly unsettled to active levels are expected over the next three days (21-23 Aug) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. There is the chance for G1 (Minor) levels to be observed the next two days (21-22 Aug) while solar wind speeds remain elevated.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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