[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S12E09) decayed into a plage region and was inactive.

At approximately 20/22 UTC a faint and slow-moving CME was seen in LASCO coronagraph imagery. The source region for this CME is unclear, and the bulk of the ejecta appears to be directed southwest of the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis of this event determined that a glancing blow from the CME is possible. However, due to its lack of density and slow nature, impact is expected to be negligible.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (22-24 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 9,290 pfu observed at 21/2025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to enhanced solar wind conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from around 600 km/s to around 450 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT. There were no significant deviations in the Bz component. The phi angle remained negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to the continued, but waning, influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to the continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Mostly unsettled levels are expected over the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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