[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (Axx/alpha, S06W03) was mostly plage, but did have a few small spots. Nonetheless the region remained inactive.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (23-25 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (23-25 Aug) due to an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were still indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from around 500 km/s to around 400 km/s. Total field strength was 5 nT or less, and the Bz component was steady. The phi angle was variable, but predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels on day one (23 Aug). Late on day two and into day three (24-25 Aug) levels are likely to become elevated as a result of a broad and slow-moving CME that left the Sun on 21 Aug. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how much of the already limited amount of material associated with this eruption was directed towards Earth. As a result only minor enhancements in the solar wind environment are forecast. Lingering effects are a possibility on day three (25 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Day one (23 Aug) is expected to be at mostly quiet levels with a return to near-background solar wind conditions. An increase to unsettled to active levels, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming, is possible late on day two and into day three (24-25 Aug) given the possibility that some material associated with the 21 Aug CME could be Earthbound.

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