[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S08W28, Cro/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer and produced low level B-class flare activity. Region 2720 (N08W31, Dso/beta) exhibited penumbral development and produced the largest flare of the period, a B4 flare at 25/1048 UTC. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (25-27 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,970 pfu observed at 24/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (25-27 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated mild enhancement from the 20 Aug CME. Wind speed peaked at 439 km/s at 25/0652 UTC. Total field reached a high value of 9 nT. Bz dropped as low as -4 nT. Phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain slightly enhanced from both the waning 20 Aug CME and weak CH HSS influence for the remainder of day one (25 Aug). Nominal solar wind conditions are expected through the majority of day two and continuing through day three (26-27 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to weak CME influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of day one (25 Aug) due to both waning transient effects and weak CH HSS influence. Isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day two (26 Aug) are expected to transition to quiet levels as solar wind conditions return to nominal levels by day three (27 Aug).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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