[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S06W43, Hrx/alpha) decayed to a unipolar spotgroup and was absent of significant flare activity. Region 2720 (N08W46, Dao/beta) exhibited separation in its leader and produced multiple B-class flares over the past 24 hours. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,930 pfu observed at 25/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next two days (26-27 Aug) and moderate levels on day three (28 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters displayed a significant enhancement from the 20 Aug CME. Although solar wind speeds were negligible, peaking at 463 km/s, total field was enhanced throughout the duration of the period. Bt underwent a gradual increase, achieving a maximum value of 19 nT at 26/0809 UTC. Bz was sustained in a southward orientation throughout the majority of the period with a low value of -17 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive after 25/1600 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period (26-28 Aug) as solar wind parameters gradual decrease. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels due to influence from the 20 Aug CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (26 Aug) due to continued influence from the 20 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) storm conditions, are likely on day two (27 Aug) with quiet to unsettled levels likely on day three (28 Aug) as CME effects gradually wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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