[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S06, L=136) decayed to plage. Region 2720 (N08W61, Cso/beta) exhibited dissipation and was absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (27-29 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 6,150 pfu observed at 26/2125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (27-29 Aug), with a chance for very high levels by day three (29 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the transition from the 20 Aug CME to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speed reached a maximum of 601 km/s at 27/0527 UTC. Total field (Bt) was elevated due to transient influence until approximately 26/2130 UTC. Bz was primarily southward through the CME, reaching negative values around -15 nT early in the period. Phi angle was predominantly positive. A drop in Bt, increase in wind speeds, and decrease in density suggested the transition to influence of the CH HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind speed enhancements are expected to gradually decline over days one and two (27-28 Aug). An additional enhancement on day three (29 Aug) is likely as influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels during the period, due to influence from the 20 Aug CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the remainder of day one (27 Aug) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely over days two and three (28-29 Aug) as less impactful CH HSS influence is anticipated.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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