[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2720 (N08W74, Hsx/alpha) continued its decaying trend and was absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (28-30 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 39,800 pfu observed at 27/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (28-30 Aug), with a chance for very high levels by day two (29 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence from the 20 Aug CME, combined with effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were elevated near 630 km/s, before steadying near 550 km/s. Total field was steady near 5 nT. Bz remained primarily southward through the event, reaching negative values around -7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive, with oscillations into the negative sector towards the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speed enhancements are expected to gradually decrease on day one (28 Aug) as CH HSS influence begin to wane. An additional enhancement late on day two (29 Aug) is likely as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. The enhancement is anticipated to persist into day three (30 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels during the period. Conditions reflected persistent enhancements from the 20 Aug CME, combined with CH HSS influence from +CH18 and the north pole CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm activity, early on day one (28 Aug) as enhancements from the positive polarity CH HSS persist. Influence from the northern CH HSS is expected to begin to taper off by midday on day one, but remain slightly enhanced as a negative CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (29-30 Aug) as CH HSS effects persist.

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